Musgrave Has Tough Fight In CO 4
By Nicholas Kusnetz
FORT COLLINS—Marilyn Musgrave should be a shoo-in for reelection based on the overwhelmingly Republican electorate here in Colorado’s 4th congressional district. Instead, the three-term incumbent who went to Washington pushing a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is fighting for her political life. This staunch conservative spends her time on the stump talking about her bi-partisan work in the House, while ads attacking her Democratic opponent flood the airwaves.
In case the message wasn’t getting through, she stressed the point to reporters after the candidates’ first debate.
“I’m the one on the stage that has demonstrated that I can work in a bi-partisan way,” she said. “I have voted to override the President’s veto three times. I’ve stood up to the leadership in my own party.”
Musgrave’s effort to distance herself from the social conservative agenda that first got her elected (not to mention an unpopular President) was actually underway before the 2008 campaign. Since her margin of victory narrowed—she won less than 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race in 2006—the Congresswoman has struggled to retool herself as a lawmaker responsive to the needs of a district dominated by agriculture and small business. She helped secure subsidies to the district’s farmers through the passage of the 2007 Farm Bill and has been an outspoken opponent of the Army’s attempt to expand a base in Southeastern Colorado into ranching territory.
Her efforts may not be enough.
The perfect storm of a collapsing economy, unhappiness with Republicans both nationally and in the Colorado legislature and Musgrave’s earlier role as an outspoken champion of the conservative right social agenda has put her behind in the polls.
Democratic challenger Betsy Markey is now positioned to join the list of Democrats riding a wave of blue into public office in the state. The race has received national attention and drawn millions of dollars in advertising money from the congressional campaign committees and independent groups. Markey, a former aide to Sen. Ken Salazar, is on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s list of “Red to Blues,” which highlights candidates to donors across the country.
State Senator Steve Johnson, a local Republican, said that while Musgrave has succeeded somewhat in refashioning her image, forces beyond her control could doom the race.
“There’s a real tide against Republicans,” he said. “It’s hard for an individual candidate to swim against that.”
On top of the national disenchantment with the Republican Party, there is an acute unhappiness here in Northeastern Colorado. Ideological fights on state issues, particularly the one over the so called Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, have pushed many moderate Republicans and independent voters away from the GOP. Musgrave’s stand on gay marriage has become a flashpoint for these moderates.
“I’m sick and tired of talking about god, guns, gays and abortion,” said Bill Kaufman, a former state representative and three-time Republican Party Chair in Larimer County, the district’s most populous. Kaufman, who plans to vote a nearly straight Democratic ticket in November, said the concentration on the conservative social agenda has cost Republicans their status as the pro-business party.
“The Democrats better represent me,” he said.
Colorado’s 4th Congressional District is shaped like a giant “L,” stretching the state’s entire eastern border before wrapping around in the north more than halfway to Utah. It’s more than 300 miles from corner to corner, reaching from Rocky Mountain peaks to the high plains. While politically diverse, the district’s voters trend to the right in the Western spirit of fiscal conservatism and wariness of federal government. But party loyalty does not run deep here—some can barely remember which party they are registered with—and Democrats and independents are gaining. In Weld and Larimer counties, home to most of the district’s people, Democratic and independent rolls have increased by more than 16,000 each since 2004, while Republicans have added less than 4,000. As of October 29, there were 109,679 Republicans, 84,698 Democrats and 99,372 unaffiliated active voters in the two counties.
But there is still a core of conservative voters, and Musgrave is still the incumbent. Her base lies more to the east, where the mountains flatten into the plains and agriculture drives the economy. At a Weld County Republicans breakfast at Harvest restaurant in Greeley, preacher Sam Grant spoke about some of those social issues that have alienated Kaufman.
Musgrave grew up in the east and people know her here, a detail that goes a long way with voters. Steve Ivie, a contractor at Lowe’s who had come to the breakfast that October morning, said morals are his number one issue. He knows Musgrave’s husband and is more comfortable voting for someone he has dealt with.
“Marilyn Musgrave is going to represent the little guy,” he said.
Musgrave’s opposition to the $700 billion rescue package was well received here, though whether it will help her stand apart from Markey, who also opposed the measure, is unclear.
Professor John Straayer, who teaches political science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, says demographic shifts in the region are helping Democrats.
“People have been moving in from the East Coast, Midwest, West Coast and I think that’s provided a little different mix than what we’ve had traditionally,” he said. The Latino vote is growing too, he said, and tends to lean Democratic. Latino’s make up almost 30 percent of the population in Weld County.
The key for Markey is winning independents, who now make up about a third of the district’s voters. The problem is, they don’t really know who she is. Bob Boswell, who owns a Western Sizzlin restaurant outside Greeley and is registered Republican, said he is not voting for Musgrave but has not committed to Markey either because he doesn’t know enough about her. The Markey campaign is well aware of the large undecided vote in Weld and is focusing its resources to make sure these voters get to know her.
“That’s where our field program is important. We’re walking neighborhoods, we’re making phone calls every night,” she said. “Our universe is the undecided voters.”
Markey said they are targeting Latino voters and young Republican women in particular.
The image battle has taken an ugly turn in a series of negative ads targeting both candidates. Outside groups have targeted Musgrave—an ad by Defenders of Wildlife calls her one of the most corrupt members of Congress. Musgrave ran her own attack ads accusing Markey of abusing her position as an aide to Sen. Salazar to gain government contracts. A swirl of criminal complaints from both sides included a letter to the US Justice Department from a local Republican chairman requesting an investigation in Markey’s time with Salazar. The mere filing of that request allowed Musgrave to run a subsequent ad stating that Markey “could spend” five years in prison.
Turn-out could be the deciding factor in the election, and Markey could benefit from the Barack Obama campaign’s unprecedented ground operation in the area. The campaign has five field offices in the district, compared to only two for Senator John McCain, and has been registering a lot of voters, said Scott Doyle, county clerk in Larimer.
“The Obama campaign has been in here doing a really good job,” he said.
Democrats have not held the seat for more than 30 years, and Markey said she has learned from past mistakes—previous candidates have not raised enough money or had support from the national party. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi headed a fundraiser for Markey in Denver in early October and later put out a plea to DCCC supporters to contribute to the candidate.
Markey out-raised Musgrave in the third quarter, with almost $720,000 coming in compared to about $600,000, though Musgrave still had more cash on hand on October 15, when third quarter reports were filed.
Many votes are being cast ahead of November 4th—Doyle said Larimer is pushing 100,000 mail-in ballots, or more than half of registered voters—and the winner may come down to who suffers less from the wrath of voters. Washington is a long way from here, and one thing pretty much everyone agrees on is that Congress and the White House, and both parties, have totally bungled the economy. Senator Johnson said voters in the area look for someone who can get the job done, regardless of party, and this explains why “bi-partisan” is one of the most frequent words out of Musgrave’s mouth these days and why party label likely won’t help any candidate here. The question, Johnson said, will be who can stand for something else.
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